Everything in the middle now.
What it costs you to stay in.
Cards that make you the winner.
- Pot odds
- 3 to 1
- You risk 50 to win 150.
- You need to win
- 25.0%
- Of the time, to break even.
- You hit on the turn
- 19.1%
- Rule of 2 and 4: about 18%.
Fold on the pot alone. You hit 19.1% of the time but need 25.0%, so the call loses about 12 chips on average. It pays only if you expect to win at least 62 more chips later when you hit (implied odds).
What pot odds are
Pot odds compare what a call costs with what it can win. If the pot holds 150 chips after your opponent bets, and you must call 50, you risk 50 to win 150: odds of 3 to 1.
Turn that into the share of the time you must win: divide your call by the pot after you call. Here that is 50 ÷ (150 + 50) = 25%. If your hand wins more than a quarter of the time, calling earns chips in the long run; if it wins less, calling loses them.
How to count your outs
An out is a card still in the deck that makes your hand the winner. Count the cards that complete your draw and leave out the ones you can see in your hand and on the board.
| Draw | Outs |
|---|---|
| Flush drawFour cards of one suit: nine more of that suit are left. | 9 |
| Open-ended straight draw8-7-6-5: any 9 or 4 makes a straight. | 8 |
| Inside straight draw8-7-5-4: only a 6 fills the gap. | 4 |
| Flush and open-ended straight drawNine flush cards and six more straight cards. | 15 |
| Flush and inside straight drawNine flush cards and three more straight cards. | 12 |
| Two overcardsA-K on a board of low cards: three aces and three kings make top pair. | 6 |
| Set to a full house or betterOn the flop, three of a kind: the board's other ranks and your last card. | 7 |
| Pocket pair to a setThe two cards left of your pair's rank. | 2 |
Watch for outs that help your opponent too. If the board is paired, a flush card can give someone else a full house; count such cards as half an out, or leave them out.
The rule of 2 and 4
At the table there is no time for exact sums. A quick estimate does the job:
- One card to come (the next card only): multiply your outs by 2. Nine outs ≈ 18%; the exact chance on the flop is 19.1%.
- Two cards to come (all in on the flop, so you see the turn and the river): multiply by 4. Nine outs ≈ 36%; exactly it is 35.0%.
Use the one-card number when you face a bet on the flop and more betting will follow on the turn: you are paying to see one card, not two.
Chances to hit, by outs
Exact chances to hit at least one of your outs, counting the 47 cards you have not seen on the flop and the 46 on the turn.
| Outs | Flop to turn | Turn to river | Flop to river |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2.1% | 2.2% | 4.3% |
| 2 | 4.3% | 4.3% | 8.4% |
| 3 | 6.4% | 6.5% | 12.5% |
| 4 | 8.5% | 8.7% | 16.5% |
| 5 | 10.6% | 10.9% | 20.4% |
| 6 | 12.8% | 13.0% | 24.1% |
| 7 | 14.9% | 15.2% | 27.8% |
| 8 | 17.0% | 17.4% | 31.5% |
| 9 | 19.1% | 19.6% | 35.0% |
| 10 | 21.3% | 21.7% | 38.4% |
| 11 | 23.4% | 23.9% | 41.7% |
| 12 | 25.5% | 26.1% | 45.0% |
| 13 | 27.7% | 28.3% | 48.1% |
| 14 | 29.8% | 30.4% | 51.2% |
| 15 | 31.9% | 32.6% | 54.1% |
Implied odds: chips you win later
Sometimes the pot alone does not pay for a call, but you expect to win more when you hit: if you make your flush, your opponent may pay off a bet on the river. Those future chips are your implied odds. The calculator shows how many extra chips you would need to win to make the call break even.
Be honest with implied odds. A flush that is obvious on the board rarely gets paid, and a short-stacked opponent has few chips left to lose.
A worked example
You hold A♥ 8♥ and the flop is K♥ 9♥ 2♣. Your opponent bets 50 into a pot of 100, so the pot is now 150 and you must call 50. You have nine outs to the nut flush.
- You need to win 25% of the time (50 ÷ 200).
- The turn gives you a flush 19.1% of the time: on the pot alone, a fold. If you were all in and saw both cards, it would be 35.0%: a call.
- With implied odds the call can still pay: it does if you expect to win at least another 62 chips on later streets when you hit.
Try these numbers in the calculator above, then put them to work against the computer players in a practice match. Want to check what you remember first? Take the poker quiz.
